奢侈品三季度料更冷：平均增速或从7%放缓到2.7%，珠宝仍是亮点

Since the beginning of the year, share prices of LVMH, Hermès and Kering have fallen 40%, 39% and 30%, respectively, while Richemont remains roughly flat. And luxury’s performance in Q3 is unlikely to offer much reassurance to investors.

On average, based on eight key luxury companies, growth is expected to slow to 2.7%, compared with 7% in the second quarter of 2026, according to HSBC estimates.  “We had turned more cautious on the sector in early September, because of all the news about the situation in China deteriorating and the tough comparison basis in the US,” says Anne-Laure Bismuth, HSBC’s head of luxury and sporting goods. “During our pre-close discussions with the companies, we realized that conditions were worse than we had initially anticipated, prompting us to lower our estimates across the board, with Richemont being the sole exception.”

Given Richemont’s significant outperformance — the group was up 20% in its fiscal Q1, versus an industry average of 7% — HSBC provides a more representative picture that excludes the group: anticipated luxury sector growth of 1.1% in Q3, down from 5.1% in Q2.

LVMH, the sector’s bellwether, is forecast to grow 1% in Q3, with its key fashion and leather goods division expected to fall 2%, per HSBC. This follows a return to positive growth for the all-important division in Q2 (+1%), which was seen as an inflection point after seven consecutive quarters of negative growth.

“In the event of a weak Q3, some investors may be more inclined to view the slowdown in the luxury market as structural rather than cyclical, putting further pressure on valuations,” says Marion Ortelli, managing director at Ortelli & Co.

Here are the key analyst predictions for luxury’s Q3.

The question mark on China

“There has been a sequential deceleration in China that’s partly linked to the introduction of a new tax on foreign assets,” Goldman Sachs luxury analyst Erwan Rambourg says. “There have been quite a few [Chinese] store closures, and I think the mood music is unsupportive of luxury.”

As for the questions likely to come up during earnings calls, Rambourg predicts: “What will it take for China to stabilize? How confident are you that Q3 will prove to be a low point and that we’ll see some improvement from here?”

Analysts think that the litigation between Louis Vuitton and local tea brand Molly Tea — whereby the latter was ordered to pay approximately $1.5 million to LV for the trademark infringement of its four-petal emblem, amid much pushback on Chinese social media — is having an impact on the house’s sales in the region. Asked about it during the LVMH Q2 earnings call, CFO Cécile Cabanis replied: “ I’m sure that you agree that IP is an absolute key asset for us, and we diligently protect our brands. Our maisons handle trademark infringement in many countries very regularly, including China. This case just received media attention.”

“I think it will have an impact, but I still think it will be temporary,” says Bismuth.

Growth slows across regions

But it’s not just China. South Korea’s luxury boom in the second quarter, fueled by wealth generated in the tech sector, particularly AI, is expected to moderate in Q3. “It’s easing off,” says Bismuth, citing a tougher year-on-year comparison basis.

Rambourg also highlights the weakness of tourist flows across Europe, noting that Asian visitors have yet to return and American ones remain the only meaningful source of demand. Middle Eastern tourism in Europe had also not fully recovered. “That could be a bit of a drag on Q3 performance,” says Jelena Sokolova, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.

In the US, meanwhile, Q3 is expected to be somewhat weaker, partly due to a tougher year-on-year comparison basis, but also a potential reflection of consumers’ wait-and-see attitudes and volatility in equity markets, according to Rambourg. “I think the idea from channel checks is that Q3 might be a bit soft, but the holiday season will be OK,” he says.

Jewelry continues as a luxury safe haven

After spectacular 24% growth last quarter across its jewelry maisons, Richemont is expected to continue to shine. According to HSBC estimates, the jewelry division — including Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels — is expected to be up 17% in Q3. “There is a slowdown, but it’s probably a healthy development,” says Bismuth. LVMH’s watches and jewelry maisons, which include Tiffany & Co. and Bvlgari, are expected to grow 11%, while Kering’s jewelry division, home to Boucheron and Pomellato, is forecast to increase 14%.

“ There is no indication of jewelry slowing down,” says Sokolova. “Jewelry has been outperforming. There are a few factors behind that. It targets more affluent consumers, so they are more resilient. Jewelry brands have been less aggressive in terms of price increase also so people see it as an investment.”

Her only concern is about overexposure looking ahead. “Jewelry brands could become victims of their own success,” she adds.

A creative reset check-in

One year after a major creative reset, where do things stand? The three mega-brands that underwent creative change are Chanel under Matthieu Blazy, Dior under Jonathan Anderson, and Gucci under Demna.

Chanel reports its earnings each May, making it difficult to track its performance in the short term. However, Blazy’s collections are understood to have boosted sales. Estimates for Q3 aren’t available, but according to a Bloomberg report published in August, comparable revenue rose 16% in the first half, with the fashion division posting similar growth. The Fall/Winter 2026 collection arrived in stores on September 22, while the cruise collection, presented in Biarritz, will hit stores in November.

HSBC expects Dior to deliver 1% organic growth in Q3, outperforming the LVMH fashion and leather goods division’s expected 2% decline, although representing a slight deceleration from Q2. (In Q2, Dior’s sales growth was “a bit above the division average” of 2%, according to Cabanis.) Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, forecasting 6% growth for Dior in the third quarter.

HSBC forecasts Gucci’s organic sales to decline 5%, while consensus expectations point to a 2.8% decline. Analysts expect GucciCore, the collection presented in Times Square and set to arrive in stores from October/November, to support a return to positive organic sales growth in Q4.

“Q3 will be quite soft,” Rambourg concludes. “We are, however, confident that things can re-accelerate into Q4 and into next year, linked to better pricing architecture, better product propositions. Some of the brands that have gone through big changes, are creeping up in terms of newness.”